Science writer David Quammen, who predicted a coronavirus pandemic in his 2012 bookSpillover, is now warning that bird flu (H5N1) could be the next global threat. With over 70 human cases, including a death in the U.S., the virus has spread to cows, chickens, and even wild animals like raccoons and dolphins.
Though human-to-human transmission hasn’t occurred, experts fear mutations could change that. Quammen compares each viral replication to a spin of a roulette wheel—billions happen daily across infected animals, increasing the odds of a dangerous mutation.
He blames factory farming, overconsumption, and ecosystem disruption for fueling virus emergence, urging stricter biosecurity and reduced reliance on industrial animal protein.